作者：Renhui Fu, Guochang Zhang
关键字：management forecast biases fire sales fire purchases mutual funds
摘要/Abstract
This paper establishes evidence of a causal link between stock price pressures and management forecast biases based on the exogenous events of fire sales and purchases of stocks by mutual funds. We find that managers issue optimistically biased forecasts in response to downward stock price pressures caused by fire sales of mutual funds, especially when their firms’ stocks have low market liquidity, when their firms are under financial constrains, or when their earnings is difficult to forecast, but they do not issue pessimistically biased forecasts in response to upward price pressures from fire purchases of mutual funds. We further find that optimistic forecast biases have the effect of mitigating downward price pressures and thus speeding up the price recovery process. Additional analysis suggests that the board does not penalize managers for issuing optimistically biased forecasts, in terms of manager dismissal, when a firm’s stock experiences fire sales. Taken together, our findings indicate that management forecast biases can serve as a tool to mitigate price pressure when stocks undergo exogenous trading shocks.
全文阅读：https://www.sinoss.net/qikan/2015/1225/14173.html